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建銀國際:宏觀周報:科技類貿易如期回暖,歐美央行預計按兵不動

來源:CCB · 建銀國際 2019-12-09 09:42:06

要點: 政治局提用好逆周期調節,堅持以改革開放應對外部壓力。中共中央政治上周五召開會議,分析研究2020年經濟工作。周期性政策方面,會議強調要提高宏觀調控的前瞻性、針對性、有效性,運用好逆周期調節工具,并提到要加強基礎設

  外匯天眼APP訊 : 要點: 政治局提用好逆周期調節,堅持以改革開放應對外部壓力。中共中央政治上周五召開會議,分析研究2020年經濟工作。周期性政策方面,會議強調要提高宏觀調控的前瞻性、針對性、有效性,運用好逆周期調節工具,并提到要加強基礎設施建設,表明2020年政策支持穩增長力度將會提升,以保證全面建成小康社會任務圓滿收官。結構性政策方面,會議強調要把外部壓力轉化為深化改革和擴大開放的動力,建設高水平開放型經濟新體制,改革、開放出現的頻次增多。此外,政治局已連續第二年在年度經濟工作會議上不提房地產,近期可重點關注中央經濟工作會議的具體表述。

  美國就業數據大超預期,消費有望繼續支持美國經濟。據彭博社報導,中美已就取消關稅數額接近達成一致,有望在新一期關稅威脅[1]生效前(即本周日)達成第一階段協議。此外,新華社報中國正展開對美國大豆和豬肉的關稅排除工作,美國總統特朗普也一改口徑,表示中美談判進展良好。數據方面,美國制造業、非制造業ISM雙雙不及預期走弱,而非農就業人數遠超預期,工資增速和失業率也好于預期。數據雖好壞參半,但受貿易協議消息提振,市場避險情緒有所緩和,美國10年期國債利率升至1.83%。

  11月科技類貿易回暖,總進口強勢回彈。11月出口數據不及預期,對美出口跌幅擴大,搶出口效應并不明顯。而進口增速則受益于去年底基數,增速結束下跌轉正。分類別看,出口受勞動力密集型行業(家具服裝等)拖累下滑,而科技供給鏈貿易明顯轉好,電子用品出口和半導體元件進口跌幅縮窄(圖1),與我們預期全球科技硬件周期回暖帶動中國貿易向好的判斷一致。詳細分析請見我們發表的《2020年宏觀展望:貿易戰烏云稍散,經濟再現曙光》。

  豬價環比漲幅縮窄,CPI春節前預計繼續沖高。豬價在11月末回落,而平均零售價格環比上漲12%,較10月19%收窄。整體食品價格11月繼續上行,預計推動CPI同比升破4.5%。豬周期還未結束:近期農戶由于擔憂疫情再爆發加緊出欄,這個短期因素影響過后,我們預計豬價將繼續波動上行,CPI同比沖高走勢將延續至春節。工業生產價格方面,能源價格雖隨國際原油價格回落,但國內金屬價格走高。我們預計PPI能維持環比小幅正增長,同比降幅收窄。

  逆周期調節雖加大,控風險基調不改,信貸增速仍預計小幅走緩。11月人民銀行小幅調降OMO利率,但信貸政策方面基調未見明顯轉向,總體仍以防范化解金融風險為主旋律。央行領導表示,金融系統的防控風險任務具體包括繼續拆解影子銀行、遏制房地產泡沫化傾向以及主動配合地方政府整頓隱性債務。月中的座談會上,央行表示社會融資規模增速與GDP增速基本匹配并略高一些,表明對信貸近期小幅走弱的容忍度較高(圖2)。數據方面,我們預計銀行新增貸款11月季節性回彈,存量增速在控風險壓力下小幅放緩。此外,企業債發行強勁,地方專項債無新增。預期社會融資總額11月將回升至1.5萬億左右,增速則由10月的10.7%微降至10.6%。

  預計美聯儲、歐央行12月按兵不動。美聯儲、歐央行本周相繼召開議息會。我們與市場預期一致,認為兩大央行不會有進一步政策調整動作,且明年上半年也不會進一步降息。但若本周日美國按原計劃對中國進口產品加征關稅,有可能引致市場避險情緒攀升,金融狀況收緊,市場對美聯儲在明年一季度(1月29日、3月18日)再次降息的預期將回升。

  [1] 美國原定于12月15日(下周日)對華加征的新一期關稅,涵蓋包括電子產品、玩具、服裝等大量消費品。若此次關稅開征,對中美經濟增速的直接影響較小,在0.1-0.2個百分點左右。

  英文報告如下:

  China tech trade improved as expected; global central banks expected to hold

  This weeks highlight

  · Politburo meeting stressed counter-cyclical measures; reiterated reforms and opening-up amid external pressure

  The Chinese Politburo held a meeting on Friday to discuss economic strategies for 2020. On the cyclical front, the meeting mentioned to make macro policies more forward-looking, targeted and effective, by utilizing counter-cyclical tools and enhancing infrastructure investments. This indicates supportive policies will likely be stepped up to support economic growth next year. On the structural front, the meeting reiterated reforms and opening-up amid external pressures, and to build an economy with a high-level of openness. The frequency of mentioning reforms and opening-up has increased markedly from last year. Notably, the Politburo skipped discussions on the property market for the second consecutive year at this annual meeting. Property sector-related policy indications could be included in the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference.

  · US job market data well above expectations; consumption expected to support overall growth

  Bloomberg reported that China and the US are closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs to be rolled back, while US negotiators are reportedly positive about a deal before the next tariff threat to take effect on 15 Dec (next Sun). Meanwhile, Xinhua reported that China is working on the tariff exclusions for US soybeans and pork. US President Trump also switched to a more constructive tone, saying the talks with China are progressing well. On the data front, US recorded weaker manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs in Nov, while non-farm payrolls well-exceeded consensus expectations and unemployment rate as well as wage growth both came in firmer than expected. Despite the mixed data, market risk sentiment has recovered on the positive trade news. US 10-year treasury yield picked up to 1.83%.

  · Chinas tech trade improved and imports rebounded strongly in Nov

  China‘s export growth came in weaker-than-expected in Nov, with shipments to the US recording a bigger drop. Advanced shipments ahead of the US holiday shopping season were not obvious in the data. In contrast, import growth turned positive in Nov, in part thanks to the low base last year. By category, the weakening in exports was mainly due to labor-intensive export industries, such as apparel and furniture, while the tech supply chain trade firmed up notably as semiconductor imports and consumer IT hardware exports bounced back. This is in-line with our view that the warming global tech cycle will drive improvement in China’s trade outlook in the near-term. Please see more detailed analysis in our Macro Outlook 2020: Pulling through the fog of the trade war.

  Whats next?

  · CPI expected to surge further before the Chinese New Year holiday

  Pork prices dropped at the end of Nov. Average monthly pork prices recorded a narrower gain of 12% MoM in Nov from 19% MoM in Oct. Overall food prices continued to increase in Nov, which we expect will push up CPI to over 4.5% YoY. Looking ahead, the pork cycle has not yet peaked. The recent correction in prices was driven by a pick-up of pigs sent for slaughter, as farmers were concerned about the spreading African swine flu. After this transitory factor fades out, we expect pork prices to continue their uptrend, driving CPI inflation to firm up till the Chinese New Year holidays (late Jan). Meanwhile, domestic energy prices eased with global crude oil prices falling, but metal prices increased. We expect PPI to maintain a small sequential gain, and its annual decline to narrow.

  · Credit growth to moderate as risk controls remain a policy focu

  The PBoC lowered key OMO rates in Nov by a small amount in Nov, but its overall policy stance did not shift dramatically, with a focus on risk controls. The PBoC leadership said that the risk control tasks will include continued shadow banking deleveraging, preventing a housing bubble and addressing local government implicit debt. The PBoC Governor Yi also said in mid-Nov that total social financing (TSF) growth is largely in line and slightly above GDP growth, showing high tolerance for the recent slowdown in credit growth . On the data side, we expect new yuan loans to rebound in Nov, with its outstanding growth to edge down under risk management pressure. Corporate bond issuances accelerated in Nov, but there was no new issuance of special local government bonds. We expect TSF growth to recover to RMB1.5t in Nov, and its growth to slow slightly from 10.7% in Oct to 10.6% in Nov.

  · ECB, Fed to hold policies unchanged

  The Fed and ECB will hold policy meetings next week. We are in-line with the market view that the two central banks will leave their policies unchanged in Dec and at least through 1H20. However, if the US implements its scheduled tariff hike next Sun, an increase of market risk aversion will likely tighten financial conditions. In this scenario, the expectation of an additional Fed rate cut in 1Q (FOMC dates 29 Jan, 18 Mar) will increase again.

  近期報告一覽:

  12月 2日 :

  宏觀周報:PMI反彈超預期,市場靜待關稅決定

  11月25日 :

  宏觀周報:中美談判再添變數,市場防御情緒升溫

  11月18日 :

  宏觀周報:經濟前景預期改善

  11月11日 : 宏觀周報

  - 貨幣寬松緩步慢行

  11月04日 : 宏觀周報

  - 中美貿易談判進展積極,美聯儲預計暫停降息

  10月28日 : 宏觀周報

  - 預計10月制造業PMI續升,聯儲繼續降息

  10月21日 : 宏觀周報

  - 9月中國經濟如期反彈,四季度增長有望低位企穩

 

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